GOP holds polling advantage in U.S. House
The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
