Who knew that an odd-numbered year would give us the sort of political skullduggery that’s usually reserved for the regular cycle? Well, it came down today that consultant Mike Green was arrested in Myrtle Beach because, according to WMBF, he was trying to create problems at a private party for mayoral candidate Mark McBride at Crocodile Rocks at Broadway at the Beach. Green was arrested for trespassing around 8 p.m. The candidate is in a runoff today with incumbent Mayor John Rhodes.

The police report, cited in the article, said that a consulting firm “pays him to cause problems for the opposing side, which is Mark McBride campaign.” Unless there’s something else been going on, Rhodes has been paying notorious Palmetto State consultant Rod Shealy for this race. The Mayor sent $7,891 his way in the third quarter of this year.

Apparently, “an altercation” occurred and Green repeatedly refused to leave. Yes, that area of Myrtle Beach tends to have that effect on people, especially those from environs north. The mug shot was also classic — blame that bad ol’ Tom DeLay. Now everybody smiles before going into the holding cell.

We’re not making assumptions based on the New Jersey results or the final in NY-23. But, we do know a thing or two about Virginia, and we’re fairly confident that the results in the 2009 elections in Virginia hold as much significance as a dog’s bollocks. Frankly, it comes down to some simple issues.

Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won their elections in 2001 and 2005 by the slimmest of margins. We weren’t in Virginia for the Kaine gubernatorial victory, but we do remember Warner. He was a very centrist candidate — he sponsored a Craftsman Truck Series vehicle, and was endorsed by the Wood Brothers. As well, Warner had name recognition. He had run a high-profile campaign against then-U.S. Sen. John Warner in 1996, while having a shit-ton of self-made money to dump into that race, the same as in his 2001 campaign.

Kaine was lucky enough to piggyback off of Warner. He was beloved as the Richmond mayor, then gained statewide recognition as lieutenant governor. As a pro-life Democrat with the Dem establishment solidly behind him, Kaine was in a great place to take on a Republican challenger in 2005.

Sen. Creigh Deeds did not have any of these advantages. Despite his 2005 run for attorney general, Deeds was not widely-known, and didn’t have the voter-rich constituency that Kaine had nor the connections with business and money that Warner had. The Virginia race could have been called two months ago.

Of course, a lot of conservatives are losing their shit about the wins in Virginia. To us, though, it’s not all that surprising. Barack Obama won the Old Dominion in the Electoral College because of very motivated Democrats, and especially very motivated black Democrats. It’s like a big win by an underdog in college football. Forgive us, but this is of what we think. In 2007, Alabama beat the total dogshit out of Tennessee. It was beautiful. However, the Crimson Tide went 0-for-November, including losing to UL-Monroe.

Obama winning Virginia in 2008 was like Bama taking out the Vols in 2007. It was a big win, and should have been left at that. Just because someone takes home a big win doesn’t mean that it’s the start of a trend. Virginia has been a conservative state for some time. Governor-elect Bob McDonnell ran a great race and capitalized where he should have and won a solid victory. Anything less would be something to worry about for the GOP.

In Virginia, Former Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell holds the fundraising advantage on Sen. Creigh Deeds. As it stands, the Republican nominee has about $2.22 million more, at $4.92 million, while Deeds has $2.7 million on hand. The discrepancy can be directly attributed to the Democrat’s bruising three-way primary fight, which, according to his campaign, left him broke.

With McDonnell being uncontested, his campaign could accumulate its money on a regular basis without having any reason to do any spending early. However, spin control was in order.

“Despite the fact that we were on television for over half of the period, we maintain a nearly two-to-one cash advantage over our opponent,” McDonnell campaign manager Phil Cox said to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Since Deeds had to go into overtime to raise money after the primary, he was certainly able to, bringing in $3.4 million in a month. During the same time, McDonnell raised $1.8 million.

Deeds received $500,000 from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and $400,000 from the Democratic Governors Association during the most recent period.

Deeds said he has received money from such contributors as U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner, $25,000; $35,000 from Austin Ligon of Goochland County, former chairman of CarMax; $10,000 each from Norfolk businessmen David Goode and Josh Darden; and $5,000 from John T. “Til” Hazel, a Northern Virginia developer and a former GOP contributor.

McDonnell listed contributions of $25,000 or more from J. Douglas Perry of Norfolk, a retired retailer; Dwight Schaubach of Norfolk, a construction executive; Richard Gilliam of Albemarle County and Marvin Gilliam Jr. of Bristol, executives of Cumberland Resource Group; W.M. Jordan Co. of Newport News, a general contractor; Altria Client Services of Henrico County, the tobacco company; and Joseph Luter III of Smithfield Foods.

The candidates running for governor in Virginia, with a lack of news going on in that race, found themselves on the business end of questions concerning what they thought of the mess S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford got himself into this week. Both candidates, Sen. Creigh Deeds and former Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell, sent their spokesmen out to give pat, non-controversial statements.

“They may be a senator and a governor, but at the end of the day these men are husbands and fathers first,” McDonnell spokesman Tucker Martin said, regarding both Sanford and U.S. Sen. John Ensign, to the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “They are real people, in real families. They made mistakes and your heart has to go out to all those hurt by these tragic situations. This really isn’t about politics. It’s about people making mistakes and all the pain that is the result. Both situations are incredibly sad.”

Deeds spokesman Jared Leopold said, “We will leave this personal issue to the Sanford family and the people of South Carolina.”

McDonnell goes on TV
The first major media buy of the general election goes to McDonnell, who is airing his first ad of his campaign against Deeds for 10 days. The $300,000 outlay is intended to push his main message of job creation and streamlining the process for starting new businesses in the Commonwealth.

Virginia, which is turning all shades of purple, is seeing its gubernatorial candidates trying their best to look like they’ll be as bipartisan as possible. It turns out that Republican nominee Bob McDonnell is stealing away Republicans who supported Democrats in the past two cycles. The group, “Virginians for McDonnell,” is being headed up by Judy Peachee Ford Wason, who helped Mark Warner, and Wyatt Durrette, who supported Tim Kaine.

“To me, it is a recognition that we need to rebuild the Reagan coalition,” McDonnell said in the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “Ronald Reagan was able to get social and economic conservatives to support him, and he was able to reach out to so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ and bring them on board around a good, solid fiscal conservative message.”

Maybe it’s just us, but once again bringing up a president who last held elective office over 20 years ago might not be the best communications strategy (eg. there are other ways to talk about “Reagan Democrats”), but, hey, we’re sure Mickey D has the best strategists money can buy.

In a counter, President Obama sent out an email (to a gigantic email list) supporting Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds, writing,

Creigh has an ability to bring people together, build consensus and deliver results. He will bring the same bipartisan, pragmatic approach to politics that former Governor and now Senator Mark Warner and my friend Governor Tim Kaine used to help Virginia move forward over the past eight years.

I know that approach works because I’ve spent some time in your great Commonwealth. In my experience, Democratic candidates with a pragmatic approach to solving problems can be successful. That’s the approach my campaign took last November to put Virginia in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964. And that’s how Creigh Deeds will win this fall.

It seems that both candidates are trying to be the heirs of the Warner/Kaine legacy, in one way or another. It’s funny, considering that Warner and Kaine both won close races. But, the abject failure of the administration of former Gov. Jim Gilmore — brought back to light in last year’s U.S. Senate race — has probably soured Virginians on putting a Republican in the state’s top post.

Despite frequent polling by the Deeds campaign and the Democratic Governors Association showing the senator with a slim-to-decent lead, the conventional wisdom is that the race is essentially tied and that McDonnell has more advantages as the campaign moves forward.

If the GOP is going to turn back the tide on Virginia going blue (or, at least periwinkle), significant wins in this year’s elections are a must. But, former Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell is starting out from behind as Sen. Creigh Deeds has emerged from a very contentious Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 47-41 lead, according to a new poll by Rasmussen.

Take a deep breath. Relax. Then throw these polling numbers directly in the garbage. This race, by any estimation, should be about even right now, even though Deeds has a statistically-significant lead (the margin of error was four percent). The Democrat has earned a six-point lead, not the least of which, is the absolute saturation of the state in news, ads and campaign appearances that were a part of the primary race. He’s been out there more, so hence, he’s going to do better than McDonnell, who didn’t have to be putting himself out, every day, in front of the people of the commonwealth.

We’ll see if there will be legitimate changes showing Deeds with a solid lead, but we doubt it. Like the race between the two men four years ago for attorney general, this one will most likely go down to the wire, as well.

Sen. Creigh Deeds pulled off a last-to-first move in the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary, blowing out former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe and former Del. Brian Moran by 20 points. With all but two precincts reporting, Deeds had 49.7 percent of the vote, compared to McAuliffe’s 26.4 and Moran’s 23.7. Deeds cleaned up, taking major wins in rural counties and winning close in some, losing close in other major cities.

Journos, especially those working for The Washington Post, started crediting the Post’s endorsement for catapulting Deeds to the win. The conventional wisdom was that by bypassing the two Northern Virginia residents in the race, the Post was showing the Democrat-heavy area who the best candidate really was. There’s also a train of thought regarding a late Google ad buy by the Deeds campaign, targeting NoVa IP addresses.

That glowing Washington Post endorsement was, in fact, what the Deeds campaign highlighted in its targeted Google ad — and in particular its linking of Deeds to popular Virginia governors past and present Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. Deeds placed visual ads in high-profile online publications like the Wall Street Journal, Martha Stewart Living, and the Post itself. Those ads, though, weren’t served up to just any-old-body; they were geo-targeted to only Northern Virginia and Washington DC — the latter to capture commuters who work in the District but vote in the commonwealth. Google calls the technique a “network blast.” It’s more commonly known as a “Google Surge,” as Kate Kaye detailed in the context of the Scott Murphy congressional race in New York.

However the win is finally dissected, Deeds is now positioned against former Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell, whom he lost to in 2005 in the closest statewide election in Virginia history.

As the three Democrats go into their gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, Sen. Creigh Deeds has solidified his position as the front-runner, surpassing former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe and former Del. Brian Moran.

Sunday, a poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling put Deeds at an incredible 40 percent, a dramatic increase from its earlier poll showing the race in a virtual dead heat. The Bath County resident had a 14-point lead on McAuliffe and a 16-point lead on Moran, but a number of people following the race believed the late-breaking numbers were outside of the norm. However, Monday, SurveyUSA came out with numbers saying largely the same thing, with Deeds at 42 percent, McAuliffe at 30 and Moran at 21. More importantly, the SurveyUSA poll shows undecideds at only seven percent.

As a few astute pundits said during the presidential primaries last year, polling in primaries is notoriously unreliable. And, word is that McAuliffe has used his cash — a lot of which is from people outside of Virginia — to build a large ground game to try to counter his falling numbers.

But, we’ll see — there’s less than 24 hours left.

Much hay has been made about former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe’s bid for Virginia governor and his spectacular ability to fundraise. After all, that was the ability that led former President Bill Clinton to install McAuliffe as head of the DNC in the first place. But, when you look at the disclosure reports from this year, they tell an interesting story.

Normally, you expect a candidate for a state office to get between 85 and 100 percent of their contributions from in-state. You may even relax the rules in a state like Virginia, which has so much bleed-over from Washington, D.C. and D.C.’s Maryland suburbs. But, McAuliffe’s reports are little strange. WR has never before seen reports for a state candidate that are so chock-a-block full of donors from New York, Florida, Texas, California and North Carolina. Even the S.C. Democratic Party’s past two chairmen, Dick Harpootlian and Joe Erwin, sent McAuliffe a combined $6,600.

Among the number of VIPs on the reports are Clinton ($10,000), former U.S. House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt’s lobbying firm ($30,000), and Donald Trump ($25,000). One woman from Los Angeles gave “the Macker” a cool $100,000. He’s also drawn individual donations of tens of thousands from Florida attorneys. One interesting, though not surprising donation, came from former U.S. Rep. Tony Coelho. In what rivals Mark Penn for epic fail on the Democratic side of the aisle, Coelho presided over losing Congress to the GOP in 1994 and was chairman of former Vice President Al Gore’s presidential campaign.

But, if you look closely, you’ll be hard-pressed to find contributions from Virginians from south of Stafford County. It’s easier to log the dozens upon dozens of donations from New York and Florida than it is to find financial support from residents of Richmond, Hampton Roads or (natch) Southside or Southwest Virginia. Sometimes, a campaign will make efforts to show, through their disclosures, statewide support. It’s clear that the McAuliffe operation said “fuck that,” and went for the big dollars, no matter if the person can actually vote in the Old Dominion or not.

Maybe that’s why the big M’s support has been trending down as his campaign account has increased.

Former Rep. Brian Moran’s campaign dropped a late negative mailer on Sen. Creigh Deeds late last week, trying to stop Deeds’ momentum and do something to help the former House minority leader’s third-place campaign before the gubernatorial primary on Tuesday.

The piece, which was distributed in liberal areas in Northern Virginia, knocks Deeds for being endorsed by the National Rifle Association in his race for attorney general against Republican Bob McDonnell four years ago. The mailer says that the NRA has only endorsed one Democrat for statewide office in the past 20 years, with that one person being Deeds. Moran must have numbers showing that gun control is a big issue for Democrats in NoVa, because otherwise it doesn’t make much sense.

When Mark Warner ran in 2001, he made an active attempt to reach out to moderates by being overtly supporting gun rights, hunting and fishing, &c. His hunting vest-orange “Sportsmen for Warner” stickers were among the first off the presses in his run. If Moran can somehow shock the world by winning in two days, he’s screwed himself for the general election, ceding ground to McDonnell and losing votes from moderates and conservative Democrats all over the state.

If we were the Deeds campaign, we’d be happy — it’s all wins. You can use the hit in the general to prove your bona fides to rural voters, and there’s relatively low impact in the primary. Virginia Democrats have already shown that they are supportive of moderates like Warner, Gov. Tim Kaine and U.S. Sen. Jim Webb.

For what it’s worth, the piece was developed by The Reiley Group, whose president, Mame Reiley, is running Moran’s campaign and has extremely close ties to Warner and was a senior adviser to Kaine.