Whether U.S. Rep. Henry Brown had the support in the First District to win reelection, he certainly had the cash-on-hand to run the full-out effort needed to win the seat. Every body else is getting in the game late, and Tumpy Campbell would be facing a Mulvaney-esque deficit in comparison. Also, Gov. Mark Sanford still has money, and it’s just sitting there, as it always does.

Not running:
HENRY BROWN
Republican
Contributions: $65,038.42
Expenditures: $14,365.12
Cash-on-hand: $724,324.18

Significant contributions
Chip Campsen, $1,000
State senator
Ray Cleary, $500
State senator
Butler Derrick, $500
Former U.S. representative
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative

Significant expenditures
None.

MARK SANFORD
Republican
Contributions: $0
Expenditures: $0
Cash-on-hand: $127,342.25

Significant contributions
None.

Significant expenditures
None.

Active candidates:
TUMPY CAMPBELL
Republican
Contributions: $24,865
Expenditures: $33,001.91
Cash-on-hand: $42,693.50

Significant contributions
Mark Buyck, $1,000
Attorney
Gedney Howe, $500
Attorney

Significant expenditures
20/10 Design (Web site design), $1,800
J.R. Rowell Printing (printing), $1,266.35, $102.13, $1,922.10, $677.25
Littlefield Consulting (consulting), $2,783.63, $2176.99, $1,758.43
Millard Mulé (consulting), $3,000×2, $3,087.66
UPT Strategies (consulting), $2,696.01, $2,008.21, $1,750

ROBERT BURTON
Democrat
Contributions: $2,950
Expenditures: $4,891.83
Cash-on-hand: $3,058.17
(Loan: $5,000)

Significant contributions
None.

Significant expenditures
None.

The noise heard in Charleston on Monday morning was U.S. Rep. Henry Brown dropping a bomb by saying he wouldn’t run for reelection. Brown had opposition in the primary, and Tumpy Campbell forcing a tough primary, but we considered it rather unlikely that Brown would get beat in an election. Incumbent legislators with high approval numbers rarely get knocked off.

In a statement released explaining his decision, Brown said:

I have arrived at this decision after much thought and prayer. In contemplating my choices, I have come to learn that there is never a good time to make an announcement such as the one I am making today. It is my hope and belief that by publicly stating my intentions at this time, it will allow interested individuals adequate time to contemplate running and sufficient time to organize and launch a campaign if they indeed feel led to do so.

On the Republican side, a primary race that featured four people will probably have half a dozen or more before it’s all over. There’s Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Isle of Palms councilman Ryan Buckhannon, right now, and speculation is rife that former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett will join in. He told Politico, “Life gives you an opportunity to learn along the way. You need a bit of gray hair. I know the committee system. I know how it works on the floor. And I know South Carolina; I know the first district.” Then there’s attorney Paul Thurmond, who said he’s looking into it, too.

For Democrats, Linda Ketner, who ran against Brown and lost in 2008, would be the high-profile name in a primary with two current low-visibility candidates. She’s supposedly seriously considering running, and we’d be surprised if she didn’t. The Southern Political Report speculates that Mullins McLeod and Robert Barber are also possibilities.

The opening has caused some Democrats to think a pick-up is possible. A bruising GOP primary and an open seat are attractive on the face of it. Though Ketner only lost by four points, U.S. Sen. John McCain won the district with 58 percent of the vote. In all likelihood, whoever comes out as the Republican nominee will probably split the difference and walk away with about a 10-point win.

The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.

One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.

U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178

U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9

That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.

In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.

House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29

Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.

As of the second quarter disclosures, U.S. Rep. Henry Brown has more than a 6-to-1 advantage on challenger Tumpy Cambell. Unless Campbell can go into overdrive to fill his campaign coffers, Brown will be able to massively outspend him in the Republican primary battle for the First District nomination.

HENRY BROWN
Contributions: $163,122.11
Expenditures: $36,366.27
Cash on Hand: $610,497.01

Contributions of note
Gayle Averyt, $250
GOP activist
Ben Hagood, $1,000
Former state representative
Anthony McAlister, $1,000
Real estate developer
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative, state senator

Expenditures of note
Gadsden & Greene Strategies [Atlanta] (consulting), $5,000×3

TUMPY CAMPBELL
Contributions: $50,593
Expenditures: $22,580.12
Cash on Hand: $49,612.88

Contributions of note
Dr. Marshall Zais, $500
President of Newberry College

Expenditures of note
Littlefield Consulting [Alexandria, Va.] (consulting), $1,250, $1,573.67, $1,330
UPT Strategies (consulting), $1,250×3, $434.76