Linda Ketner, who came within a few points of an upset win over U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in 2008, followed up her refusal to run for the First District this year with an announcement to not seek the U.S. Senate as an independent candidate. A few weeks ago, a couple people who were staffers on her Congressional campaign began a drive to gather the 10,000 signatures necessary to put her on the ballot to face U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint and Democratic nominee Alvin Greene. The effort was seen as an attempt by disaffected Democrats to put a legitimate candidate opposite DeMint. Late June, the signature drive appeared to be going gangbusters.
With 10 days left until the deadline, though, Ketner released a statement saying that she will not run, and asking people who are collecting signatures to stop the process.
Dear Friends,
I am deeply grateful to the hundreds of you who worked toward petitioning me as an Independent Candidate for U.S. Senate and to the thousands who have already signed the petition!
When asked to consider such a candidacy, I agreed to think about it because I understand and respect the frustration and disappointment of the Senate primary, and of the general sad-state of government. I share it. We deserve better.
A key reason we were able to run a competitive 2008 campaign for Congress in the First District was you, our caring and engaged supporters. You gave your time, talents and resources freely and enthusiastically as you are doing now in the petition drive.
Also essential to our 48% showing was that we had the time, team and money to run that race very well. During the weeks since the Petition Initiative was presented to me, I have exhaustively considered all the ways that we might mount a similarly strong campaign in the short 3 1/2 months left to us. Sadly, I have concluded that at this late date, it’s just not possible to assemble the team and resources we need to mount the effective campaign we all want.
Bottom line: yes, we deserve – and desperately need – better government, but a last minute campaign without essential resources won’t get us that outcome.
And so, with great appreciation and humility, I thank those who participated in this initiative, and announce I will not accept a petition candidacy. I have asked that the drive be stopped.
I know this is disheartening to those who worked so hard, but I hope you’ll appreciate that you did something important.
At a time when people talk endlessly and seldom take action to right a political system that no longer operates in the best interest of the American people, you took action.
Our country needs you, our state needs you, to keep working for a more agile, more focused government led by elected representatives who are motivated to put Americans first, smart enough to find solutions, and who are not courtesans to special interests.
This election, I hope that you will find candidates for whom you have respect and help send them to Columbia or Washington.
I, with you, will continue to work on behalf of a responsive and responsible government; and will hope for future opportunities to serve our state.
With gratitude and respect,
Linda
That’s that. Down-ballot Democrats are not going to appreciate this news, considering that while Ketner would lose her name ID, cash and campaigning would bring more Dems to the polls and influence marginal races. In a year when they didn’t need another hit, it just got a little bit harder for the donkey types in South Carolina.
It sure was a long way down for U.S. Rep. Henry Brown. He spent 15 years in the State House, attaining the powerful position of chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. In 2000, he was elected to Congress, and will have spent 10 years there by the time his term ends. Going into this year, everything looked kosher for another term.
Then things took a turn. The Republican primary for the First District began drawing people who wanted to challenge Brown for the nomination. And he probably looked back to 2008 when Democrat Linda Ketner gave him a run for his money, when in any other circumstance that shouldn’t have happened. Brown was in trouble. So he bailed.
For the county board of supervisors.
Shades of Richard Nixon running for governor of California. Or Jerry Brown running for, well, everything. Brown had name recognition and the “Republican workhorse” appeared ready to take down incumbent Berkeley County Supervisor Dan Davis. Could it be that easy? In his pre-election report before the primary, Brown showed that he raised $79,550, spent $32,105.54 and had $47,444.46 on hand. Davis had to take out a $35,000 loan, raising $10,620, spending $39,093.75 and had $7,883.10 on hand. But Davis had one advantage Brown didn’t — he was a local incumbent.
While other incumbents found themselves in trouble this year, local government is a different animal. You’re right there with the voters, daily. You don’t have to go to Columbia or Washington for an extended period of time. If you do a halfway decent job, people are more likely to trust you than an incumbent further up the ballot. And so it was on Tuesday.
Davis took out Brown with about 56 percent of the vote. Considering that Brown’s in his 70s, this was most likely his last campaign. From Congress to not being able to be elected to the county board in two easy years.
Whether U.S. Rep. Henry Brown had the support in the First District to win reelection, he certainly had the cash-on-hand to run the full-out effort needed to win the seat. Every body else is getting in the game late, and Tumpy Campbell would be facing a Mulvaney-esque deficit in comparison. Also, Gov. Mark Sanford still has money, and it’s just sitting there, as it always does.
Not running:
HENRY BROWN
Republican
Contributions: $65,038.42
Expenditures: $14,365.12
Cash-on-hand: $724,324.18
Significant contributions
Chip Campsen, $1,000
State senator
Ray Cleary, $500
State senator
Butler Derrick, $500
Former U.S. representative
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative
Significant expenditures
None.
MARK SANFORD
Republican
Contributions: $0
Expenditures: $0
Cash-on-hand: $127,342.25
Significant contributions
None.
Significant expenditures
None.
Active candidates:
TUMPY CAMPBELL
Republican
Contributions: $24,865
Expenditures: $33,001.91
Cash-on-hand: $42,693.50
Significant contributions
Mark Buyck, $1,000
Attorney
Gedney Howe, $500
Attorney
Significant expenditures
20/10 Design (Web site design), $1,800
J.R. Rowell Printing (printing), $1,266.35, $102.13, $1,922.10, $677.25
Littlefield Consulting (consulting), $2,783.63, $2176.99, $1,758.43
Millard Mulé (consulting), $3,000×2, $3,087.66
UPT Strategies (consulting), $2,696.01, $2,008.21, $1,750
ROBERT BURTON
Democrat
Contributions: $2,950
Expenditures: $4,891.83
Cash-on-hand: $3,058.17
(Loan: $5,000)
Significant contributions
None.
Significant expenditures
None.
The noise heard in Charleston on Monday morning was U.S. Rep. Henry Brown dropping a bomb by saying he wouldn’t run for reelection. Brown had opposition in the primary, and Tumpy Campbell forcing a tough primary, but we considered it rather unlikely that Brown would get beat in an election. Incumbent legislators with high approval numbers rarely get knocked off.
In a statement released explaining his decision, Brown said:
I have arrived at this decision after much thought and prayer. In contemplating my choices, I have come to learn that there is never a good time to make an announcement such as the one I am making today. It is my hope and belief that by publicly stating my intentions at this time, it will allow interested individuals adequate time to contemplate running and sufficient time to organize and launch a campaign if they indeed feel led to do so.
On the Republican side, a primary race that featured four people will probably have half a dozen or more before it’s all over. There’s Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Isle of Palms councilman Ryan Buckhannon, right now, and speculation is rife that former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett will join in. He told Politico, “Life gives you an opportunity to learn along the way. You need a bit of gray hair. I know the committee system. I know how it works on the floor. And I know South Carolina; I know the first district.” Then there’s attorney Paul Thurmond, who said he’s looking into it, too.
For Democrats, Linda Ketner, who ran against Brown and lost in 2008, would be the high-profile name in a primary with two current low-visibility candidates. She’s supposedly seriously considering running, and we’d be surprised if she didn’t. The Southern Political Report speculates that Mullins McLeod and Robert Barber are also possibilities.
The opening has caused some Democrats to think a pick-up is possible. A bruising GOP primary and an open seat are attractive on the face of it. Though Ketner only lost by four points, U.S. Sen. John McCain won the district with 58 percent of the vote. In all likelihood, whoever comes out as the Republican nominee will probably split the difference and walk away with about a 10-point win.
The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao‘s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
As of the second quarter disclosures, U.S. Rep. Henry Brown has more than a 6-to-1 advantage on challenger Tumpy Cambell. Unless Campbell can go into overdrive to fill his campaign coffers, Brown will be able to massively outspend him in the Republican primary battle for the First District nomination.
HENRY BROWN
Contributions: $163,122.11
Expenditures: $36,366.27
Cash on Hand: $610,497.01
Contributions of note
Gayle Averyt, $250
GOP activist
Ben Hagood, $1,000
Former state representative
Anthony McAlister, $1,000
Real estate developer
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative, state senator
Expenditures of note
Gadsden & Greene Strategies [Atlanta] (consulting), $5,000×3
TUMPY CAMPBELL
Contributions: $50,593
Expenditures: $22,580.12
Cash on Hand: $49,612.88
Contributions of note
Dr. Marshall Zais, $500
President of Newberry College
Expenditures of note
Littlefield Consulting [Alexandria, Va.] (consulting), $1,250, $1,573.67, $1,330
UPT Strategies (consulting), $1,250×3, $434.76
