The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
An irregular commentary
According to Gov. Mark Sanford, the only money he has control over is about $700 million dollars. It is too bad that he is either totally playing politics with the money, or is so ignorant that he does not know what he actually has control over.
According to the federal Recovery and Reinvestment Act, South Carolina is up for a great deal of money. In fact, $700 million is only part of that. Ironically, $700 million is the exact amount of money that the General Assembly has the right to accept, per the amendment that U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn had inserted into the bill.
According to Title XIV of the act:
Title XIV: State Fiscal Stabilization Fund – Appropriates $53.6 billion for a State Fiscal Stabilization Fund, which is to be administered by the Secretary of Education.
(Sec. 14001) Allocates the bulk of such Fund for grants to states pursuant to a formula that considers each state’s share of individuals age 5 through 24 and each state’s share of the nation’s total population.
(Sec. 14002) Requires states to use at least 81.8% of their allocation to: (1) restore their funding of elementary, secondary, and postsecondary education for each fiscal year from FY2009-FY2011 to the greater of their FY2008 or FY2009 levels; and (2) supplement school improvement funds provided to local educational agencies (LEAs) under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965. Allows states to use their allocation to implement scheduled increases in their elementary and secondary education funding for FY2010-2011.
Authorizes states to use up to 18.2% of their allocation for public safety and other government services.
(Sec. 14004) Requires public institutions of higher education to use any funds they receive from states under this title for: (1) education and general expenditures that mitigate their need to raise tuition and fees for instate students; or (2) the modernization, renovation, or repair of facilities that are primarily used for instruction, research, or student housing. Prohibits the use of such funds for school endowments.
(Sec. 14005) Requires state grantees to: (1) maintain their level of support for elementary, secondary, and postsecondary education at least at FY2006 levels; (2) address inequities in the distribution of highly qualified teachers between high- and low-poverty schools; (3) establish longitudinal data systems that include the elements required by the America COMPETES Act; (4) improve their academic content and achievement standards, and the quality and inclusiveness of their assessments of student progress toward such achievement standards; and (5) ensure that LEAs are implementing corrective actions or implementing alternative governance arrangements for certain failing schools.
(Sec. 14006) Directs the Secretary of Education to reserve $5 billion from such Fund for: (1) incentive grants to states that make significant progress in addressing inequities in teacher distribution, establishing longitudinal education data systems, improving educational standards and assessments, and ensuring the improvement of failing schools; and (2) the creation of an Innovation Fund to award LEAs, or partnerships between nonprofit organizations and LEAs or schools, that make significant progress in closing student achievement gaps.
(Sec. 14008) Requires reports on, and evaluations of, Stabilization Fund programs.
(Sec. 14012) Authorizes the Secretary of Education to waive or modify, for those states that experience a precipitous decline in financial resources, this title’s requirement that they maintain at least their FY2006 level of support for education.
Funny thing is, the $700 million Sanford talks about is for this provision of the act, and it is spread out over two years. So, this year, if the budget goes through as passed by the House, South Carolina will receive $350 million for a highly structured way of shoring up state appropriations for education.
In reality, something that the Governor obviously has not dealt with in some time, he has control of a possible $8 billion in federal dollars from the recently passed act. It is patently absurd that he would tell the press that the only part of the money he has any control over is what can be easily taken out of his hands by legislative fiat. And, if the Senate agrees with the House by a large enough margin, it probably will.
On Wednesday, Speaker of the House Bobby Harrell called out Sanford on his shell game.
“It’s as simple as him telling them, ‘Don’t take it.’ But he’s not doing that. He’s saying in his letter he does not have the authority to do that. That is not correct,” Harrell said to the Post & Courier.
Clyburn, the U.S. House majority whip, did not back down, either. Sanford has said he intends to use $700 million to pay off the state debt. Instead of creating jobs, which the bill was made to do, it would only pay off people and organizations who hold S.C. government bonds.
“Paying down debt when the economy is crashing won’t stop the deepening recession and won’t put people back to work. As a matter of fact, while prudent in times of economic stability, paying down debt in a time of recession has the opposite effect; it deepens and lengthens economic downturns,” Clyburn said in a statement, printed in the P&C.
If Sanford wants his three-stop tour of the state to be his own Ron Paul-esque attempt at tilting at windmills, then fine. He just should not insult the intelligence of the rest of us that know better.
Monday, the House took up the state budget, spending over 10 hours debating the biggest parts of the bill, including the education budget, which is, by itself, the single largest expenditure of state government on an annual basis.
Early on, the House passed over a number of sections on the bill to approve sections of the budget that did not have any opposition, so that the sections with a number of amendments would have the time to be taken up in the afternoon.
After coming back from the lunch break, the House passed over several amendments to get to Amendment No. 73 by Ways and Means Committee chairman Dan Cooper, which mandated that South Carolina would take the entirety of the Recovery and Reinvestment Act money, which had earlier passed Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama.
Gov. Mark Sanford gained an inordinate amount of television time going back and forth as to whether South Carolina would accept the money, but the proviso in the budget made that fact so, at least as far as the House was concerned. Before the budget reached the House floor, the decision to accept the money had already been decided, and the money spread among applicable programs.
Minority Leader Harry Ott raised his issue, which had been raised in subcommittee and committee, that he thought the way the distribution of the money had been distributed wasn’t right. It came out that staff from Ways and Means had discussed the act with staff from U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s office, and decided how much could be spent, and where it could be spent. Ott believed that a staff member had misinterpreted the language in the act.
“We believe, to the best of our knowledge, at this time, that we are perfectly correct in our interpretation,” Cooper said.
The amendment passed 108-8.
The House will return to session at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, and will most likely continue on its marathon session until late in the evening.
