Sen. Mick Mulvaney’s campaign to unseat long-serving Fifth District U.S. Rep. John Spratt ran into a little Internet trouble this week. We’re not saying outages like we had recently — thanks, Time Warner — but hiring an inexperienced person/firm who sent said inexperienced person to deal with its new media operation. Apparently unfamiliar with the self-policing aspects of Wikipedia and how totally anal-retentive the keepers of the kingdom are, Erin Febel stirred up a hornet’s nest.
At least, that’s per commenter “Orange Mike.”
Somebody named Erin Febel, who apparently works for Mick in some capacity, created a Wikipedia article about him (there should have been one already, since he’s a state legislator). That in and of itself verges on a conflict of interest violation.
What has gotten her big loud warnings, is that even after being warned about our strict conflict of interest rules, she keeps editing the article!!!! She just removed all the warnings about ways in which the article needs to be cleaned up, and while she was at it removed Mulvaney’s wife’s maiden name (a “secret” discovered by looking at his official website).
And there’s this:
And that:
We wonder how the Mulvaney campaign does its hiring. It’s involved in arguably one of the top-five high-profile U.S. House races this year. So they hire a new media person straight out of college? Who apparently doesn’t know how not to get caught on Wikipedia? Did she ever read one of the dozens of stories about staffers or consultants who get caught cleaning up a Wikipedia page on the candidate? Maybe Spratt has less to worry about than originally thought.
As Randy Moss said, “Straight cash, homey.” That’s what U.S. Rep. John Spratt has, and it’s quite a large advantage over his challenger, Sen. Mick Mulvaney. This time, though, Spratt’s contributions are almost exclusively from corporate and union PACs, which means that his Washington fundraiser is definitely doing her work. Both candidates are carrying a debt load.
JOHN SPRATT
Democrat
Contributions: $76,641.19
Expenditures: $31,099.11
Cash-on-hand: $645,791.66
(Debt: $44,000)
Significant contributions
Nancy Pelosi for Congress, $2,000×2
Campaign committee of the U.S. Speaker of the House
Significant expenditures
Carolina Public Relations and Marketing (advertising), $2,266.48, $1,076.50, $1,005
Pattie Fiorello (fundraising), $4,000×3
National Guard Association (contribution), $1,000
Piedmont Specialty Advertising (campaign supplies), $1,420.91
John Alan Presto (fundraising), $1,596×3
MICK MULVANEY
Republican
Contributions: $53,331.90
Expenditures: $11,135.99
Cash-on-hand: $117,197.42
(Loan: $75,000)
Significant contributions
Gayle Averyt, $1,000
Former chairman, Colonial Life
Ralph Norman, $1,000
State representative
Chad Walldorf, $1,000
S.C. Club for Growth
Significant expenditures
MacPherson Group (fundraising), $2,700×2
The Mace Group (Web site design), $2,048
The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao‘s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
We’ve got your next Republican opponent to U.S. Rep. John Spratt, and it’s Sen. Mick Mulvaney of SD-16. Mulvaney beat Mandy Powers-Norrell by (roughly) 54-46 to take the senate seat last year.
This seems like an especially bad move for Mulvaney. Spratt is the teflon representative. If any other Democrat repped the district, he or she would have been beaten long ago. And, it’s a sure bet that when Spratt retires, the seat will undoubtedly go Republican. Why any right-minded GOP official would run against him defies the imagination. Year after year, whether it’s good for or bad for Dems, Spratt pulls out the win.
For Mulvaney, he spent one term in the House and is now in his first term in the Senate. It would probably behoove him to stick it out in the Senate, considering that he has a four-year term and Spratt has to run every cycle. It’s open whenever he wants it. But, that doesn’t mean it’s winnable.
This isn’t about the issues. It’s about seniority and constituent service. With a Democratic majority in the House, and as Spratt is a power in the budget-writing process, he wields considerable power on Capitol Hill. And then there’s the voters in the district. Spratt’s won in election after election by getting Republicans to vote for him. As any politician knows, if you’re good to your constituents, they’ll be good to you, even if they disagree with some of your policies.
However, that doesn’t mean it’ll be a walk in the park. Our opening line is Spratt as a favorite by six points (53-47).
