As Randy Moss said, “Straight cash, homey.” That’s what U.S. Rep. John Spratt has, and it’s quite a large advantage over his challenger, Sen. Mick Mulvaney. This time, though, Spratt’s contributions are almost exclusively from corporate and union PACs, which means that his Washington fundraiser is definitely doing her work. Both candidates are carrying a debt load.

JOHN SPRATT
Democrat
Contributions: $76,641.19
Expenditures: $31,099.11
Cash-on-hand: $645,791.66
(Debt: $44,000)

Significant contributions
Nancy Pelosi for Congress, $2,000×2
Campaign committee of the U.S. Speaker of the House

Significant expenditures
Carolina Public Relations and Marketing (advertising), $2,266.48, $1,076.50, $1,005
Pattie Fiorello (fundraising), $4,000×3
National Guard Association (contribution), $1,000
Piedmont Specialty Advertising (campaign supplies), $1,420.91
John Alan Presto (fundraising), $1,596×3

MICK MULVANEY
Republican
Contributions: $53,331.90
Expenditures: $11,135.99
Cash-on-hand: $117,197.42
(Loan: $75,000)

Significant contributions
Gayle Averyt, $1,000
Former chairman, Colonial Life
Ralph Norman, $1,000
State representative
Chad Walldorf, $1,000
S.C. Club for Growth

Significant expenditures
MacPherson Group (fundraising), $2,700×2
The Mace Group (Web site design), $2,048

The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.

One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.

U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178

U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9

That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.

In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.

House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29

Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.

We’ve got your next Republican opponent to U.S. Rep. John Spratt, and it’s Sen. Mick Mulvaney of SD-16. Mulvaney beat Mandy Powers-Norrell by (roughly) 54-46 to take the senate seat last year.

This seems like an especially bad move for Mulvaney. Spratt is the teflon representative. If any other Democrat repped the district, he or she would have been beaten long ago. And, it’s a sure bet that when Spratt retires, the seat will undoubtedly go Republican. Why any right-minded GOP official would run against him defies the imagination. Year after year, whether it’s good for or bad for Dems, Spratt pulls out the win.

For Mulvaney, he spent one term in the House and is now in his first term in the Senate. It would probably behoove him to stick it out in the Senate, considering that he has a four-year term and Spratt has to run every cycle. It’s open whenever he wants it. But, that doesn’t mean it’s winnable.

This isn’t about the issues. It’s about seniority and constituent service. With a Democratic majority in the House, and as Spratt is a power in the budget-writing process, he wields considerable power on Capitol Hill. And then there’s the voters in the district. Spratt’s won in election after election by getting Republicans to vote for him. As any politician knows, if you’re good to your constituents, they’ll be good to you, even if they disagree with some of your policies.

However, that doesn’t mean it’ll be a walk in the park. Our opening line is Spratt as a favorite by six points (53-47).