The National Republican Congressional Committee is having the same issues that usually befall political types — coming up with a name for something that can has some fun made of it. So it is as the NRCC rolled out a project to flip marginal districts, something they’re calling, “Project Code Red.”
The essence of the effort is that the targeting of certain representatives and certain districts related to votes on the Democratic health care plans. So, the thought was: “OK, it’s a health care emergency, so that’s a code blue. But we’re Republicans, so…code red!” Right.
And that’s while everybody else is having visions of Jack Nicholson and Tom Cruise. Really — even Politico used “NRCC orders ‘Project Code Red.’” It leaves you thinking that the slogan for the effort will be, “You want them in the House, you need them in the House!”
Of course, it could have been intentional just to get this sort of reaction. The more people who talk about the project, the more people know about it, and the more successful it could be.
Somebody please save U.S. Rep. Parker Griffith from himself. He ran in 2008 in northern Alabama as a conservative Democrat. Because he’s totally cool with screwing over everyone that supported him in order to get reelected, he flipped parties in the middle of the first term. That pissed of his Democratic former supporters and the Republicans he now says he’s sympatico with. He’s angered damn near everybody.
The National Republican Congressional Committee may not have paid attention to the recent party switch, or maybe it’s a mistake that’s not a mistake, but last week a story came out about a direct mail solicitation by the NRCC to get people to help support defeating Griffith in his reelection run.
“We’ve been up on the air all over Alabama’s 5th Congressional District so that voters there know your Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi’s destructive liberal agenda,” reads the solicitation.
The National Republican Congressional Committee issued the letter. While that line might apply to the Griffith elected in 2008, he has since changed sides, switching in December from the Democratic Party to the Republicans. A committee spokesman said the letter was sent because of administrative oversight.
Ha!
Not only that, but Alabama is a state that has an unusual history with unions, compared to other states in the Deep South. Yeah, it’s not as strong as it used to be, but labor still has more pull in industrial areas of the state than most other Southern states. Now, the state AFL-CIO wants its money back.
Speaking at a news conference at the downtown Holiday Inn, Al Henley, secretary-treasurer of the Alabama AFL-CIO, said labor groups felt like they had elected a “pro-working family” congressman in Griffith, but now feel “swindled” by his votes on major legislation.
The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao‘s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
