The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
Party activists are sometimes worse than SEC fan bases. If you don’t produce immediately, you’re a bum, not worthy for consideration. Just check out the two dozen for sale signs in your front yard. Bum.
For the Democrats, it happened with Howard Dean. A good portion of the party thought, “What the hell are those bastard national committeemen/women thinking electing the screaming freakshow from Vermont to head our party? And a 50-state strategy? Yeah, like a Democrat will so win North Carolina, Virginia or Indiana any time soon.”
Egg, meet face.
A combination of good strategy and continual fuck-ups by the Bush administration led to a Democratic takeover of Congress (and the first female speaker) and a presidential win (and the first black president). Consider Dean the Pete Carroll of national committee hires.
So, it was with typical skepticism that we watched the GOP base collectively lose its shit almost immediately after Michael Steele was elected chairman. Hey, give the man a shot, we said. After all, the last guys lost Congress and the presidency — nowhere to go but up, from here.
OK, so he didn’t do so well out of the gate, screwing up one statement or another, saying something, taking it back, trying to split the difference and so on. But, surely everyone remembers Dean’s brilliance on “Hardball” in 2005 when he famously uttered, “Well, certainly the president can claim executive privilege. But in the this case, I think with a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court, you can’t play, you know, hide the salami, or whatever it’s called.” Certainly, it’s doubtful Bush wanted to play hide the salami with Harriet Miers.
This all brings us to today, in which the RNC chose not to concentrate on the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor, or the Democrats’ energy plan, or the Guantanamo/torture fiasco, but the Obamas’ plans for Saturday evening. Really.
- follow as mark knoller tweets the Obama’s all expense paid evening in NYC courtesy the U.S. taxpayers.#RNC
- Some suggestions closer to home: Tom Stoppard’s “Arcadia” at the Folger Elizabethan Theatre; Valerie Harper in “Looped” at Lincoln Theatre”Rent,” at the Warner Theatre; Noel Coward’s “Design for Living” at the Shakespeare Theatre Company
- Other DC suggestions for the Obamas-”Rent,” is at Warner Theatre, Noel Coward’s “Design for Living” at Shakespeare Theatre Company #RNC
- If anyone else cares to suggest a more economical way the first couple could spend their evening…#RNC
Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the most pressing concern Saturday was that the President and First Lady were going to New York City for dinner and a show. Never mind the fact that Bush got out of DC whenever possible, though this may just be payback for Democrats harping on the former president’s frequent vacations.
But seriously, if this is the best that Steele and his people can come up with, then maybe it is time to go to the bullpen.
Wonkette, the nation’s premier political satire source on the Internet, has stumbled upon the crazy-as-a-sack-of-weasels atmosphere of S.C. politics before, but today the Palmetto State struck twice.
Mark Sanford Is Queen Of Welfare Queens
Southern Slave Owner Plotting Hit On Michael Steele
