Linda Ketner, who came within a few points of an upset win over U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in 2008, followed up her refusal to run for the First District this year with an announcement to not seek the U.S. Senate as an independent candidate. A few weeks ago, a couple people who were staffers on her Congressional campaign began a drive to gather the 10,000 signatures necessary to put her on the ballot to face U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint and Democratic nominee Alvin Greene. The effort was seen as an attempt by disaffected Democrats to put a legitimate candidate opposite DeMint. Late June, the signature drive appeared to be going gangbusters.
With 10 days left until the deadline, though, Ketner released a statement saying that she will not run, and asking people who are collecting signatures to stop the process.
Dear Friends,
I am deeply grateful to the hundreds of you who worked toward petitioning me as an Independent Candidate for U.S. Senate and to the thousands who have already signed the petition!
When asked to consider such a candidacy, I agreed to think about it because I understand and respect the frustration and disappointment of the Senate primary, and of the general sad-state of government. I share it. We deserve better.
A key reason we were able to run a competitive 2008 campaign for Congress in the First District was you, our caring and engaged supporters. You gave your time, talents and resources freely and enthusiastically as you are doing now in the petition drive.
Also essential to our 48% showing was that we had the time, team and money to run that race very well. During the weeks since the Petition Initiative was presented to me, I have exhaustively considered all the ways that we might mount a similarly strong campaign in the short 3 1/2 months left to us. Sadly, I have concluded that at this late date, it’s just not possible to assemble the team and resources we need to mount the effective campaign we all want.
Bottom line: yes, we deserve – and desperately need – better government, but a last minute campaign without essential resources won’t get us that outcome.
And so, with great appreciation and humility, I thank those who participated in this initiative, and announce I will not accept a petition candidacy. I have asked that the drive be stopped.
I know this is disheartening to those who worked so hard, but I hope you’ll appreciate that you did something important.
At a time when people talk endlessly and seldom take action to right a political system that no longer operates in the best interest of the American people, you took action.
Our country needs you, our state needs you, to keep working for a more agile, more focused government led by elected representatives who are motivated to put Americans first, smart enough to find solutions, and who are not courtesans to special interests.
This election, I hope that you will find candidates for whom you have respect and help send them to Columbia or Washington.
I, with you, will continue to work on behalf of a responsive and responsible government; and will hope for future opportunities to serve our state.
With gratitude and respect,
Linda
That’s that. Down-ballot Democrats are not going to appreciate this news, considering that while Ketner would lose her name ID, cash and campaigning would bring more Dems to the polls and influence marginal races. In a year when they didn’t need another hit, it just got a little bit harder for the donkey types in South Carolina.
More or less, what was expected to happen in the Republican primary runoffs for South Carolina’s Congressional seats did happen. Rep. Tim Scott is all but assured of being the next congressman from the First District with his thorough dispatching of Paul Thurmond, Rep. Jeff Duncan won a relatively close race against Richard Cash in the Third District, Solicitor Trey Gowdy took out U.S. Rep. Bob Inglis in the Fourth and Jim Pratt probably won the right to get waxed by U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn in the Sixth.
Everybody’s in a lather about Scott being only a few months away from being the only black Republican in Congress, and while that is noteworthy, there’s not much there beyond pointing out the obvious. The story that is rattling around for us is what happened in the Fourth District. Inglis spent three terms in the House in the ’90s, and another three after U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint decided to run for Fritz Hollings‘ open seat. What happened?
For one thing, Gowdy laid down a whuppin’, 71-29. That’s not just a big win, it’s a joke. A laugher. How did Inglis so completely alienate the people who sent him to Washington six times? When he left his seat to run against Hollings in 1998, Inglis was every bit the rock-ribbed, hard-right conservative. He was going around saying things like “only Christians should marry Christians.” Even in South Carolina, we’re pretty sure religion isn’t a relationship dealbreaker for most, but it’s the Upstate — you go where the voters are.
In the past few years, though, he’s turned into a different character. Inglis developed some relatively moderate positions. And that straight killed him. Inglis said that he was trying to represent all of the people. While laudable, you have to get elected, first, before you can represent anyone. And everybody isn’t voting in the Republican primary in the Fourth District, much less the runoff. Just like that, it was all over.
This week, with the filing period opening for state candidates starting, candidates are beginning to roll out advertisements on an increasing level. Just now, U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson went on TV, and Columbia mayoral candidate Kirkman Finlay III began running a new ad, as well. Wilson is in a tough race with Democratic challenger Rob Miller, a campaign that will likely be one of the most expensive Congressional races in the country. Finlay is in a barnburner of a race as well, facing a large slate of candidates for the open seat.
Wilson:
Finlay:
Stop the insanity. It broke wide today, but it’s been assumed for a while that Rep. Tim Scott, in just his first year in the House, is jumping into the race to replace U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in the First District. Yesterday, Scott’s consultants at Starboard Communications sent out an invitation to meet the candidate in Conway this evening.
We consider it funny that even before a proper announcement, people were already being invited “to meet Republican Congressional candidate Tim Scott.” Wait, really? The AP, which sent a story across the wire around lunch time, apparently didn’t know, either. Leaving the lieutenant governor’s race, he was second in money with over $170,000 on hand.
Here’s something to ponder — five months out from the primary, there are seven Republican candidates and three Democratic candidates. Trading the coast for DC must be a really attractive option these days.
Whether U.S. Rep. Henry Brown had the support in the First District to win reelection, he certainly had the cash-on-hand to run the full-out effort needed to win the seat. Every body else is getting in the game late, and Tumpy Campbell would be facing a Mulvaney-esque deficit in comparison. Also, Gov. Mark Sanford still has money, and it’s just sitting there, as it always does.
Not running:
HENRY BROWN
Republican
Contributions: $65,038.42
Expenditures: $14,365.12
Cash-on-hand: $724,324.18
Significant contributions
Chip Campsen, $1,000
State senator
Ray Cleary, $500
State senator
Butler Derrick, $500
Former U.S. representative
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative
Significant expenditures
None.
MARK SANFORD
Republican
Contributions: $0
Expenditures: $0
Cash-on-hand: $127,342.25
Significant contributions
None.
Significant expenditures
None.
Active candidates:
TUMPY CAMPBELL
Republican
Contributions: $24,865
Expenditures: $33,001.91
Cash-on-hand: $42,693.50
Significant contributions
Mark Buyck, $1,000
Attorney
Gedney Howe, $500
Attorney
Significant expenditures
20/10 Design (Web site design), $1,800
J.R. Rowell Printing (printing), $1,266.35, $102.13, $1,922.10, $677.25
Littlefield Consulting (consulting), $2,783.63, $2176.99, $1,758.43
Millard Mulé (consulting), $3,000×2, $3,087.66
UPT Strategies (consulting), $2,696.01, $2,008.21, $1,750
ROBERT BURTON
Democrat
Contributions: $2,950
Expenditures: $4,891.83
Cash-on-hand: $3,058.17
(Loan: $5,000)
Significant contributions
None.
Significant expenditures
None.
The retirement of U.S. Rep. Henry Brown has thrown a wrench into the plans of many Lowcountry politicians. The latest involves Rep. Tim Scott, currently a candidate in a three-way race for lieutenant governor. Granted, the SC-01 race already has legacy candidates like Tumpy Campbell and Paul Thurmond, but it winning would give the victor much more authority than one would ever have in the No. 2 spot in state government. No doubt, that’s why rumors are flying hot and heavy that Scott will go over to the SC-01 run next week.
“I think, ultimately, Representative [Henry] Brown’s retirement announcement caught us all off guard a little bit,” he said. “My first response was there was not much to think about. Then folks … started calling me and asking me to consider it.”
Scott, R-North Charleston, said as he has campaigned for lieutenant governor, he has talked about the economy, government transparency and the need to win back America one state at a time.
“People said, ‘Why aren’t you running for Congress if that’s your agenda?’ ” he said.
Considering the consultants he’s hired and the monied interests that have backed him in the LG run, it’s not surprising that Scott would take a serious look at SC-01. If he does make a go, however, he’ll have to aggressively step up his fundraising efforts considering he’ll be taking on two scions of South Carolina’s most famous political families.
Charleston County Councilman Paul Thurmond officially entered the race to replace U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in SC-01 on Wednesday, declaring his intentions via news release.
We have serious problems facing our country — too many people are without jobs, out of control federal spending, a Democratic Congress bent on destroying our health care system while eliminating benefits to our senior citizens, rising taxes, and an Administration that seems to think that apologizing for America’s actions is good foreign policy. First we must cut taxes to spur business growth and create jobs. The use of tax dollars as incentives is a critical economic development tool, and one that was used on Council in bringing Boeing and more than 3,800 jobs to the district.
Thurmond’s entry makes the Republican primary race even more of a mad dash for money and votes. Already in the race were Tumpy Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Ryan Buckhannon. It also sets up the legacy battle between himself and Campbell, which instantly creates Politico stories.
More scions on the way…
Strom Thurmond’s youngest son, Paul Thurmond, announced Wednesday he’s running for retiring GOP Rep. Henry Brown’s seat (R-S.C.) between two children of past prominent South Carolina politicians.
One of his opponents? Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III, the son of former GOP Congressman and Gov. Carroll Campbell. Campbell had already been running for the seat, and was challenging Brown before the congressman’s retirement announcement.
As with all crowded primary battles, we hope this one gets creatively nasty and entertaining. According to The State, Thurmond says he has received $50,000 for his exploratory committee, but he doesn’t have anything online yet.
Linda Ketner, who came within four points of an upset of U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in 2008, decided against running for the seat again, following Brown’s announcement that he would retire. Thus far, the race has drawn much more attention from Republicans than Democrats, and Ketner’s decision increases the already-good odds that SC-01 will remain in GOP hands at the end of this year.
On her Facebook site, she wrote:
Dear Friends and Supporters,
I am deeply appreciative of all the encouragement I’ve received from hundreds of you since Congressman Brown’s resignation. Because we have been partners in building a better South Carolina, I wanted you to be the first to know that I will not be running for Congress in 2010. Personally a…nd professionally, 2010 is not the time for me to mount a campaign.
Although I’m not endorsing anyone until I see each candidate’s thinking as regards how to make government work again, I ask my supporters to take a close look at Colonel Robert Burton. He and I met over 10 years ago and worked together on affordable housing initiatives in South Carolina. I find him to be a man of integrity, service and leadership and will study his candidacy carefully.
My wish – and I’m sure yours – is that a candidate of uncommon wisdom, principles, independence and leadership emerges victorious for this seat.
Very best regards,
Linda
With all due respect to Sen. Larry Grooms, his leaving of the Republican gubernatorial primary race was classified in the “when, not if” category. U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett and Atty. Gen. Henry McMaster are taking a lot of the oxygen when it comes to media, and especially as it comes to money. Dollars may not win the election, but they’ll damn sure kill your chances if you don’t have enough of them. So, U.S. Rep. Henry Brown‘s announced retirement came at just the right time.
Citing a full plate of legislative action and lower than expected fundraising for the fourth quarter, Sen. Grooms told Conservative.SC that he is now carefully considering whether or not to run for the retiring Henry Brown’s 1st Congressional District seat.
“This has been a dream of mine for more than 10 years,” Grooms told Conservative.SC. “This is an opportunity of a lifetime.”
Though the race for SC-01 is going to have a crowded field, it sets up much better for a potential win. After all, Brown was a state representative when he took the seat. Grooms will need less money to compete, both in terms of logistics of paying for getting it on with the voters, and paid media.
The noise heard in Charleston on Monday morning was U.S. Rep. Henry Brown dropping a bomb by saying he wouldn’t run for reelection. Brown had opposition in the primary, and Tumpy Campbell forcing a tough primary, but we considered it rather unlikely that Brown would get beat in an election. Incumbent legislators with high approval numbers rarely get knocked off.
In a statement released explaining his decision, Brown said:
I have arrived at this decision after much thought and prayer. In contemplating my choices, I have come to learn that there is never a good time to make an announcement such as the one I am making today. It is my hope and belief that by publicly stating my intentions at this time, it will allow interested individuals adequate time to contemplate running and sufficient time to organize and launch a campaign if they indeed feel led to do so.
On the Republican side, a primary race that featured four people will probably have half a dozen or more before it’s all over. There’s Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Isle of Palms councilman Ryan Buckhannon, right now, and speculation is rife that former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett will join in. He told Politico, “Life gives you an opportunity to learn along the way. You need a bit of gray hair. I know the committee system. I know how it works on the floor. And I know South Carolina; I know the first district.” Then there’s attorney Paul Thurmond, who said he’s looking into it, too.
For Democrats, Linda Ketner, who ran against Brown and lost in 2008, would be the high-profile name in a primary with two current low-visibility candidates. She’s supposedly seriously considering running, and we’d be surprised if she didn’t. The Southern Political Report speculates that Mullins McLeod and Robert Barber are also possibilities.
The opening has caused some Democrats to think a pick-up is possible. A bruising GOP primary and an open seat are attractive on the face of it. Though Ketner only lost by four points, U.S. Sen. John McCain won the district with 58 percent of the vote. In all likelihood, whoever comes out as the Republican nominee will probably split the difference and walk away with about a 10-point win.
