Stop the insanity. It broke wide today, but it’s been assumed for a while that Rep. Tim Scott, in just his first year in the House, is jumping into the race to replace U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in the First District. Yesterday, Scott’s consultants at Starboard Communications sent out an invitation to meet the candidate in Conway this evening.

We consider it funny that even before a proper announcement, people were already being invited “to meet Republican Congressional candidate Tim Scott.” Wait, really? The AP, which sent a story across the wire around lunch time, apparently didn’t know, either. Leaving the lieutenant governor’s race, he was second in money with over $170,000 on hand.

Here’s something to ponder — five months out from the primary, there are seven Republican candidates and three Democratic candidates. Trading the coast for DC must be a really attractive option these days.

Whether U.S. Rep. Henry Brown had the support in the First District to win reelection, he certainly had the cash-on-hand to run the full-out effort needed to win the seat. Every body else is getting in the game late, and Tumpy Campbell would be facing a Mulvaney-esque deficit in comparison. Also, Gov. Mark Sanford still has money, and it’s just sitting there, as it always does.

Not running:
HENRY BROWN
Republican
Contributions: $65,038.42
Expenditures: $14,365.12
Cash-on-hand: $724,324.18

Significant contributions
Chip Campsen, $1,000
State senator
Ray Cleary, $500
State senator
Butler Derrick, $500
Former U.S. representative
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative

Significant expenditures
None.

MARK SANFORD
Republican
Contributions: $0
Expenditures: $0
Cash-on-hand: $127,342.25

Significant contributions
None.

Significant expenditures
None.

Active candidates:
TUMPY CAMPBELL
Republican
Contributions: $24,865
Expenditures: $33,001.91
Cash-on-hand: $42,693.50

Significant contributions
Mark Buyck, $1,000
Attorney
Gedney Howe, $500
Attorney

Significant expenditures
20/10 Design (Web site design), $1,800
J.R. Rowell Printing (printing), $1,266.35, $102.13, $1,922.10, $677.25
Littlefield Consulting (consulting), $2,783.63, $2176.99, $1,758.43
Millard Mulé (consulting), $3,000×2, $3,087.66
UPT Strategies (consulting), $2,696.01, $2,008.21, $1,750

ROBERT BURTON
Democrat
Contributions: $2,950
Expenditures: $4,891.83
Cash-on-hand: $3,058.17
(Loan: $5,000)

Significant contributions
None.

Significant expenditures
None.

The retirement of U.S. Rep. Henry Brown has thrown a wrench into the plans of many Lowcountry politicians. The latest involves Rep. Tim Scott, currently a candidate in a three-way race for lieutenant governor. Granted, the SC-01 race already has legacy candidates like Tumpy Campbell and Paul Thurmond, but it winning would give the victor much more authority than one would ever have in the No. 2 spot in state government. No doubt, that’s why rumors are flying hot and heavy that Scott will go over to the SC-01 run next week.

“I think, ultimately, Representative [Henry] Brown’s retirement announcement caught us all off guard a little bit,” he said. “My first response was there was not much to think about. Then folks … started calling me and asking me to consider it.”

Scott, R-North Charleston, said as he has campaigned for lieutenant governor, he has talked about the economy, government transparency and the need to win back America one state at a time.

“People said, ‘Why aren’t you running for Congress if that’s your agenda?’ ” he said.

Considering the consultants he’s hired and the monied interests that have backed him in the LG run, it’s not surprising that Scott would take a serious look at SC-01. If he does make a go, however, he’ll have to aggressively step up his fundraising efforts considering he’ll be taking on two scions of South Carolina’s most famous political families.

Charleston County Councilman Paul Thurmond officially entered the race to replace U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in SC-01 on Wednesday, declaring his intentions via news release.

We have serious problems facing our country — too many people are without jobs, out of control federal spending, a Democratic Congress bent on destroying our health care system while eliminating benefits to our senior citizens, rising taxes, and an Administration that seems to think that apologizing for America’s actions is good foreign policy. First we must cut taxes to spur business growth and create jobs. The use of tax dollars as incentives is a critical economic development tool, and one that was used on Council in bringing Boeing and more than 3,800 jobs to the district.

Thurmond’s entry makes the Republican primary race even more of a mad dash for money and votes. Already in the race were Tumpy Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Ryan Buckhannon. It also sets up the legacy battle between himself and Campbell, which instantly creates Politico stories.

More scions on the way…

Strom Thurmond’s youngest son, Paul Thurmond, announced Wednesday he’s running for retiring GOP Rep. Henry Brown’s seat (R-S.C.) between two children of past prominent South Carolina politicians.

One of his opponents? Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III, the son of former GOP Congressman and Gov. Carroll Campbell. Campbell had already been running for the seat, and was challenging Brown before the congressman’s retirement announcement.

As with all crowded primary battles, we hope this one gets creatively nasty and entertaining. According to The State, Thurmond says he has received $50,000 for his exploratory committee, but he doesn’t have anything online yet.

Linda Ketner, who came within four points of an upset of U.S. Rep. Henry Brown in 2008, decided against running for the seat again, following Brown’s announcement that he would retire. Thus far, the race has drawn much more attention from Republicans than Democrats, and Ketner’s decision increases the already-good odds that SC-01 will remain in GOP hands at the end of this year.

On her Facebook site, she wrote:

Dear Friends and Supporters,

I am deeply appreciative of all the encouragement I’ve received from hundreds of you since Congressman Brown’s resignation. Because we have been partners in building a better South Carolina, I wanted you to be the first to know that I will not be running for Congress in 2010. Personally a…nd professionally, 2010 is not the time for me to mount a campaign.

Although I’m not endorsing anyone until I see each candidate’s thinking as regards how to make government work again, I ask my supporters to take a close look at Colonel Robert Burton. He and I met over 10 years ago and worked together on affordable housing initiatives in South Carolina. I find him to be a man of integrity, service and leadership and will study his candidacy carefully.

My wish – and I’m sure yours – is that a candidate of uncommon wisdom, principles, independence and leadership emerges victorious for this seat.

Very best regards,
Linda

With all due respect to Sen. Larry Grooms, his leaving of the Republican gubernatorial primary race was classified in the “when, not if” category. U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett and Atty. Gen. Henry McMaster are taking a lot of the oxygen when it comes to media, and especially as it comes to money. Dollars may not win the election, but they’ll damn sure kill your chances if you don’t have enough of them. So, U.S. Rep. Henry Brown’s announced retirement came at just the right time.

Citing a full plate of legislative action and lower than expected fundraising for the fourth quarter, Sen. Grooms told Conservative.SC that he is now carefully considering whether or not to run for the retiring Henry Brown’s 1st Congressional District seat.

“This has been a dream of mine for more than 10 years,” Grooms told Conservative.SC. “This is an opportunity of a lifetime.”

Though the race for SC-01 is going to have a crowded field, it sets up much better for a potential win. After all, Brown was a state representative when he took the seat. Grooms will need less money to compete, both in terms of logistics of paying for getting it on with the voters, and paid media.

The noise heard in Charleston on Monday morning was U.S. Rep. Henry Brown dropping a bomb by saying he wouldn’t run for reelection. Brown had opposition in the primary, and Tumpy Campbell forcing a tough primary, but we considered it rather unlikely that Brown would get beat in an election. Incumbent legislators with high approval numbers rarely get knocked off.

In a statement released explaining his decision, Brown said:

I have arrived at this decision after much thought and prayer. In contemplating my choices, I have come to learn that there is never a good time to make an announcement such as the one I am making today. It is my hope and belief that by publicly stating my intentions at this time, it will allow interested individuals adequate time to contemplate running and sufficient time to organize and launch a campaign if they indeed feel led to do so.

On the Republican side, a primary race that featured four people will probably have half a dozen or more before it’s all over. There’s Campbell, Katherine Jenerette and Isle of Palms councilman Ryan Buckhannon, right now, and speculation is rife that former U.S. Rep. Tommy Hartnett will join in. He told Politico, “Life gives you an opportunity to learn along the way. You need a bit of gray hair. I know the committee system. I know how it works on the floor. And I know South Carolina; I know the first district.” Then there’s attorney Paul Thurmond, who said he’s looking into it, too.

For Democrats, Linda Ketner, who ran against Brown and lost in 2008, would be the high-profile name in a primary with two current low-visibility candidates. She’s supposedly seriously considering running, and we’d be surprised if she didn’t. The Southern Political Report speculates that Mullins McLeod and Robert Barber are also possibilities.

The opening has caused some Democrats to think a pick-up is possible. A bruising GOP primary and an open seat are attractive on the face of it. Though Ketner only lost by four points, U.S. Sen. John McCain won the district with 58 percent of the vote. In all likelihood, whoever comes out as the Republican nominee will probably split the difference and walk away with about a 10-point win.

The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.

One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.

U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178

U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9

That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.

In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.

House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29

Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.

As of the second quarter disclosures, U.S. Rep. Henry Brown has more than a 6-to-1 advantage on challenger Tumpy Cambell. Unless Campbell can go into overdrive to fill his campaign coffers, Brown will be able to massively outspend him in the Republican primary battle for the First District nomination.

HENRY BROWN
Contributions: $163,122.11
Expenditures: $36,366.27
Cash on Hand: $610,497.01

Contributions of note
Gayle Averyt, $250
GOP activist
Ben Hagood, $1,000
Former state representative
Anthony McAlister, $1,000
Real estate developer
Arthur Ravenel, $250
Former U.S. representative, state senator

Expenditures of note
Gadsden & Greene Strategies [Atlanta] (consulting), $5,000×3

TUMPY CAMPBELL
Contributions: $50,593
Expenditures: $22,580.12
Cash on Hand: $49,612.88

Contributions of note
Dr. Marshall Zais, $500
President of Newberry College

Expenditures of note
Littlefield Consulting [Alexandria, Va.] (consulting), $1,250, $1,573.67, $1,330
UPT Strategies (consulting), $1,250×3, $434.76

Rep. Leon Stavrinakis of Charleston might be casting an eye at running for something other than State House next year, if a couple groups dedicated to him on Facebook carry any weight. First, there’s “Leon Stavrinakis for SC Governor 2010,” and then “Draft Leon Stavrinakis for US Congress in 2010.”

In his second term in the House, Stavrinakis wouldn’t be the least experienced candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial field, next to fellow Charlestonian Mullins McLeod. The group dedicated to that cause has 223 members as of last count, and lists his bio and a number of accomplishments. The group was created by Christopher Cook, who by his Facebook profile does not seem to be any sort of political operative and has a “Mafia Wars” obsession that puts WR to shame.

The congressional race group, on the other hand, sports about 117 members and officially declares itself “unofficial.” As opposed to the other group, though, this one was started by former House Democratic Caucus director Tyler Jones. He was Stavrinakis’ campaign manager during the last cycle.

From here, it doesn’t look like Stavy is going to make the hop. He only has a little over $11,000 in the kitty, and while something more may show up in the July 10 report, it’s going to take a significant amount of money to make a challenge in either race. But, if he were to make a run, we would suspect it would be for the U.S. House seat, considering that Linda Ketner has chosen not to run, and the gubernatorial field already has a number of contenders.