You would think that Democratic candidate for SC-02, Rob Miller, would have taken some good lessons from his 2008 campaign against incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson. When he announced again, it looked a lot to us like it would be similar to Beaufort architect Jane Frederick’s second run against the late U.S. Rep. Floyd Spence. He’d pull some votes, but wouldn’t significantly challenge Wilson.

Last fall’s fun and games infused both campaigns with an insane amount of money for a South Carolina race for Congress. Miller now has more money than Democratic Sen. Vince Sheheen, who actually has to run a statewide campaign for governor instead of just one of six districts. Capitalizing on his buzz, Miller has been traveling the country to raise money and making the best of his Internet fundraising.

But other than that, his campaign has largely been a low-key affair. So, it came as an interesting revelation to see the report and fallout from Miller’s appearance at a meeting of the Greater Irmo Democratic Club. From what we’ve been able to gather, the Club invited WIS to the meeting, then there was a brouhaha about who ordered the WIS cameras be kept out.

After a couple days of thinking about this, we consider it Miller’s, or his campaign’s, fault. The woman who spoke for the GIDC, Joanne Hafter, said in a story by WIS, “I just want to set the record straight, neither I or anyone from GIDC made the decision to exclude the media, especially after we invited the media in the first place. It was Rob’s campaign manager who was adamant about not having press coverage.”

We actually met Ms. Hafter years ago, when we went to school with her daughters. Between the person we knew (however briefly) and the person we don’t, we’re siding with the GIDC on this incident. After all, we’ve been alerted to other screw-ups with the media committed by the Miller campaign.

When you’re the underdog in a district that skews against your party, you have to be very careful about what your campaign does, who it courts for support and how you manage your media exposure. Common sense would say that Miller would have known this already. Doesn’t seem like his campaign figured that part out.

Holy hell, the Second District race is going to make a lot of people a lot of money. U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson still has a large lead on challenger Rob Miller, but both have the fundraising stats that are more on par with a statewide race. Both took cash nationwide, but there’s a difference. Wilson used the Internet and direct mail to solicit a lot of his donations. Miller flew around the country to do his. Both spent a great deal of money to bring in more money.

JOE WILSON
Republican
Contributions: $401,954.41
Expenditures: $612,042.93
Cash-on-hand: $2,341,915.32
(Debt: $102,359.29)

Significant contributions
David All, $250
The David All Group
Joe Edens, $400, $1,000
Edens & Avant
Whit Ayres, $1,000
Pollster
Don Tomlin, $2,000
Tomlin & Co.
Jake Rasor, $2,000
Restaurant franchisee
Roger Milliken, $4,800
Milliken Corporation
Association of Kentucky Fried Chicken Franchisees, $2,000
Business organization
Chickasaw Nation, $1,000
Native American organization

Significant expenditures
The Bivings Group (Web site enhancement), $3,000
Dustin Olson Consulting (campaign manager fee), $10,000, $5,000, $5,000
E2C Consulting (fundraising), $3,000×2, $2,000
Jump! New Media (Web site development), $9,000, $1,060.25, $11,791.54, $8,066.17
Cocentric Office (mail processing), $18,627, $531.69, $3,750
School Cuts (T-shirts), $2,466.56
Velvetex (flyers, signs), $5,323.25
The Richard Norman Company (direct mail), $65.633.05
Pour House (dinner event), $1,431.40
Jamestown Associates (consulting, video), $28,000
Benjamin Clarke (speech and article prep), $7,500
Farley Enterprises (online fundraising advertising), $16,270.50
Response America (direct mail), $5,877.76
David All Group (online fundraising), $72,775.20, $91,791.84
Carolina First Visa Card (credit card), $15,424.51, $16,339.29
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (polling), $28,800, $1,400
Advantage (polling), $1,600
Washington Intelligence Bureau (direct mail caging), $1,903.83, $2,621.56
The Phillips Group (fundraising), $2,925
Media Ad Ventures (direct mail), $28,985.78
MDI Imaging & Mailing (postage), $4,417.36
Mail Marketing Strategies (direct mail), $3,559.88
Bobby Van’s Steakhouse (meal expense), $1,490.85
WilandDirect (list rental), $3,750
S.C. Republican Party (contribution), $25,000
National Republican Congressional Committee (contribution), $25,000

ROB MILLER
Democrat
Contributions: $224,276.13
Expenditures: $223,156.12
Cash-on-hand: $1,678,333.40

Significant contributions
Irene Foxhall, $1,000
VP, Continental Airlines
Thomas Gibson, $1,000, $400
Actor
Royce West, $500
Texas state senator
Avon Ray Honey Campaign Fund, $500
Campaign committee
College Democrats of New York, $200
Political organization
Debbie Wasserman Schultz for Congress, $2,000
Campaign committee

Significant expenditures
4C Partners (field consulting), $10,000
Adrienne Donato (fundraising), $2,500
Ben Ray (Web expenses), $1,697.95, $1,500×2
Bryant Park Hotel (event expenses), $1,533.61
Cielo (catering), $2,121, $3,998.64
Darrison Barrett & Associates (fundraising), $3,000
Envision Communications (advertising), $15,501.90, $1,524.92
Intercontinental Chicago (event expenses), $1,000, $1,874
Mia Phifer & Associates (fundraising), $1,500
MSHC (web expenses, printing), $550, $877, $3,000, $35,435.62, $100×3
New Partners Consulting (research), $5,000
NGP Software (database), $1,609.75, $500, $5,135
Political Development Group, $3,500×2

The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.

One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.

U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178

U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9

That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao’s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.

In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.

House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29

Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.

U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson is in a good position to be reelected, according to the latest assessment by Roll Call. The analysis slots SC-02 as “likely Republican,” the next-best thing to a door-slamming “solid Republican” categorization. This comes on the heels of a fundraising blitz by Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, in which Wilson, who was behind at first, finished with $2.7 million raised to Miller’s $1.7 million.

A poll taken just two days after Wilson’s “You lie!” outburst showed the candidates tied, but even some Democrats doubt Miller will be able to keep pace with the Congressman.

It probably hasn’t helped that Miller has taken a low-profile campaign approach and has generally avoided the national spotlight. Wilson has embraced his newfound status as a conservative icon and has even become a fundraising draw for candidates and party causes in other states.

As pointed out in the article, U.S. Sen. John McCain took the district by nine points last year, and there’s a chance Wilson could improve on his eight-point win from last time.

Second District Democratic challenger Rob Miller started off strong during the fundraising scramble following U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson’s remark, but as has been pointed out, he fell short of Wilson’s total during the third quarter. In all, Miller brought in $1,699,240.03, sent out $104,093.06 and has $1,644,070.84 on hand. The majority of his money came from liberal fundraising aggregators ActBlue and MoveOn.org. As a result, much like Wilson, Miller’s dollars had a nationwide reach, particularly on the coasts. Of interest were the number of engineers, tech workers and the bevy of college professors donating to the cause.

Notable contributions
Bud Ferillo, $1,000
Ferillo & Associates
Don Fowler, $1,000
Former DNC chairman
John Grisham, $2,400
Author
James Smith, $250
State representative
John Land, $350
State senator
Dick Riley, $500
Former governor
Philip Birsh, $250
President, Playbill Inc.
John Hodgman, $500
Actor
Chris Weitz, $4,800
Filmmaker
AmeriPAC: The Fund for a Greater America, $5,000
U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer’s PAC
Friends of Rosa DeLauro, $1,000
Committee of U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro
Keep Nick Rahall in Congress, $2,000
Committee of U.S. Rep. Nick Rahall
Moran for Congress, $1,000
Committee of U.S. Rep. Jim Moran
Secure PAC, $1,000
U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson’s PAC

Notable disbursements
Envision Communications (media/advertising), $4,576.33
Libertas LLC (Web site and new media), $1,500×2
Lucky Media Group (Web site), $4,000
NGP (campaign office suite), $1,650, $450
Benjamin Ray (Web expenses), $4,467.90

U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson made bank after the Obama speech brouhaha. The contributions were from around everywhere, though the Houston area, the Northeast, California and Florida figured prominently in the contributions. Regardless, there was a ton of money flowing in. At the time of reporting, Wilson showed a balance of $2,692,063.98 received, $305,909.58 disbursed and $2,598,104.23 on hand. Insanity. Apparently, while the economy is still in the dumpster, there are a number of people willing to give up hard cash to pols.

Notable contributions
Richard Hook, $5,000
President, US1 Flea Market
Sam Jones, $1,000
Owner, Hampton Automotive
Richard Dyer, $250
Dick Dyer & Associates
Don Tomlin, $1,500
Tomlin & Co.
Charles Sellier, $1,000
Writer, Grizzly Adams Productions
Karen Iacovelli, $1,000
Businesswoman
William Golden, $250
Oak Ridge Boys
Bill Lowndes III, $1,000
Tindall Corporation
The Fund for America’s Future, $1,000
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s PAC
Friends of Jeb Hensarling, $2,000×2
Committee of the Fifth District representative from Texas
Ron Lewis for Congress, $4,000
Committee for the Second District representative from Kentucky
Every Republican is Crucial PAC, $5,000
U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor’s PAC
Chickasaw Nation, $1,000
Native American nation

Notable disbursements
Eric Dell (campaign consulting), $2,000
E2C Consulting (fundraising services), $2,000, $3,332.98
The Richard Norman Company (mail postage and list rental), $29,919.32
The David All Group (Web site advertising), $42,400
Under The Power Lines (Web hosting fee), $650
Active Engagement (Web site advertising), $52,250, $750
Mail Marketing Strategies (postal mailing expense), $2,513.94
Jump! New Media (Web site hosting fee), $650×2, $1,150
Pyrix (Web site management fee), $28,100
The Philips Group (fundraising fee), $8,831.65

Round of applause, fellas. There’s a reason Congress has such a low approval rating, and it’s for events of political theater like the one that unfolded Tuesday evening in the U.S. House. Maybe it’s because we’re friendly with partisans of both sides, and they all get fired up about this, but it seems to us that after the initial kerfuffle, this thing should have gone away.

Let’s recap: During President Barack Obama’s health care address, U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson yelled, “You lie!” from the House floor. It shouldn’t have happened, it allowed a lot of people to throw jokes at his expense and poke fun. Great, that’s fine — he brought it on himself. Then, Wilson called Obama chief of staff and professional ball-breaker Rahm Emanuel to apologize.

Seems like that would work. A two-day story.

But, oh, this is American politics, and one turn deserves another, like a never-ending series of attacks reminiscent of August 1914. Liberals fired back, raising bank for challenger Rob Miller’s campaign. Wilson’s people countered, developing T-shirts and doing fundraising of their own. There were demonstrations and counter-demonstrations. There were clowns. Add into the mix an endless amount of sniping over the Internet.

What is the Democratic majority to do? We thought it was great that the Democrats picked a woman as its first speaker of the house in 12 years. Not so happy that it was Nancy Pelosi. For one reason or another, she never struck us as someone that you’d want in the leadership. But, it is what it is.

Sprinkle into the mix some classic South Carolina battles. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn commented in a story recently that he was none too happy that Wilson held a town hall meeting at Keenan High School, in the Sixth District. Whether that was a part of it or not, it was reported by a Politico reporter on C-SPAN today that Pelosi wasn’t initially behind the idea of a resolution, and it was Clyburn who lobbied for the resolution.

So, there we were, ’round 5 p.m., watching the House going through the roll call vote. In the end, the resolution passed, 240-179. Expect a continuing amount of warring against the 12 Democrats that voted against and the seven Republicans that voted for the resolution, including U.S. Rep. Bob Inglis, who is in a tough primary fight to save his seat.

The play was called by the Democrats, so we’ll analyze what they could, or could not have done, in the situation. There are a number of factors to take into consideration, but it should be split on external and internal lines.

Externally speaking, they should have let it go. Yeah, let the netroots and the grassroots and every other roots complain and raise money and put up blog posts and hold rallies. They do that pretty well. Have the House Caucus issue a statement saying that you deplore the congressman’s actions, but respect his apology, and that it’s the party’s intention to move on and pass meaningful health care reform. Done. The House Dems look good, and seem like they have their eyes on the ball. May cost with the die-hards, but they’re never happy, anyway.

Internally speaking, Pelosi had to act. House Democrats watched for eight years while they saw Republicans hold the line for President George W. Bush. If the Dems didn’t do something that is ultimately a pretty petty thing, it would seem like they were weak. And, this is Washington politics — it’s like the African plains. The weak get eaten by the lions. Also, it was a way of telling Obama that the House has his back. Internal politics, it can be a bastard.

And so it is. In the insular, high school-like world of Capitol Hill, the House Dems didn’t have perspective — at least, that’s the way it looks from South Carolina. They did a very red meat thing in the middle of debating one of the biggest issues of the last century.

So, here we go again. This story will probably run another week or two before the next scandal or catastrophe, and there will be more claims of Marxism and racism thrown around and maybe, at some point, we can finally get to the bottom of the health care problem in our country.

But that didn’t happen today.

After U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson had a moment of temporary insanity and yelled at the President from the floor of the House on live, national television — joining the long list of off-kilter moments from S.C. politicos — he seemed really contrite in his apology, given to Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel (then Emanuel probably said, “Fuck you, Joe,” because he’s contractually obligated to drop f-bombs every few words).

But, almost immediately, he started back on the attack, which was almost like saying, “I’m sorry, but not really.” The fact is, if you’re not winning, you’re losing. The gaffe necessitated that he had to turn it to his advantage. His consultants started seriously aggressively pimping his shirts, and there was a rally scheduled at his office in West Columbia. He went up on YouTube.

In the video, Wilson says, “The supporters of the government takeover of health care and the liberals who want to give health care to illegals are using my opposition as an excuse to distract from the critical questions being raised about this poorly conceived plan. They want to silence anyone who speaks out against it. They made it clear they want to defeat me and pass the plan.

The campaign’s use of social media was well-done, though at times very annoying.

And considering he’s being blown out in the post-speech money race, something had to be done. He gave an underdog that he should clock for a second-straight cycle some life and made his reelection — an all-but-certain prospect — a real doubt.

If Wilson had just kept his head down and got whipped by the Democrats in the media and let challenger Rob Miller keep rolling in money, he would be in an even worse position. He had to circle the wagons, as a matter of course. Whether his reaction saves his seat or he wins just because the district is drawn that way, we’ll be able to deduce next year.

Rob Miller, running against U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson, seems to have been handed a gift. Around 3 p.m. Friday, Miller was closing in on raising $800,000 online, basically getting a ton of money and free publicity for simply being the most viable opponent in the race.

Then Public Policy Polling released the results of a poll showing that Miller was one up on Wilson, 44-43 percent. The poll closely resembled, in terms of support spread across party lines, of a recent survey regarding Gov. Mark Sanford. If it wasn’t over a year from Election Day, this could be a problem. However, there is a lot of time between then and now, and this furor will die down. And as was seen with today’s tweet-off between @ragley and @wexler and @repboydbrown, there’s some debate as to the veracity of the numbers.

In 2008, Miller spent a lot of money and ran a good race and still lost by eight points. While we’re of the opinion he could change the spread, we’re doubtful of him changing the result. Unless he can seriously capitalize on this hubbub beyond this month, we don’t think he’ll pull it off.

As well, Clemson professor David Woodard basically said the same thing, “Still this is a very ‘red state’ and Joe Wilson is a conservative Republican with a long record. He is also a very energetic campaigner. He works very hard in his campaigns. I doubt he’ll be taken out by this, but he’ll certainly have the fight of his life trying to raise money and hold on to his seat.”