More or less, what was expected to happen in the Republican primary runoffs for South Carolina’s Congressional seats did happen. Rep. Tim Scott is all but assured of being the next congressman from the First District with his thorough dispatching of Paul Thurmond, Rep. Jeff Duncan won a relatively close race against Richard Cash in the Third District, Solicitor Trey Gowdy took out U.S. Rep. Bob Inglis in the Fourth and Jim Pratt probably won the right to get waxed by U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn in the Sixth.
Everybody’s in a lather about Scott being only a few months away from being the only black Republican in Congress, and while that is noteworthy, there’s not much there beyond pointing out the obvious. The story that is rattling around for us is what happened in the Fourth District. Inglis spent three terms in the House in the ’90s, and another three after U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint decided to run for Fritz Hollings‘ open seat. What happened?
For one thing, Gowdy laid down a whuppin’, 71-29. That’s not just a big win, it’s a joke. A laugher. How did Inglis so completely alienate the people who sent him to Washington six times? When he left his seat to run against Hollings in 1998, Inglis was every bit the rock-ribbed, hard-right conservative. He was going around saying things like “only Christians should marry Christians.” Even in South Carolina, we’re pretty sure religion isn’t a relationship dealbreaker for most, but it’s the Upstate — you go where the voters are.
In the past few years, though, he’s turned into a different character. Inglis developed some relatively moderate positions. And that straight killed him. Inglis said that he was trying to represent all of the people. While laudable, you have to get elected, first, before you can represent anyone. And everybody isn’t voting in the Republican primary in the Fourth District, much less the runoff. Just like that, it was all over.
Last week, the right honorable gentleman known as Earl of the Capps put forth the suggestion that it was entirely possible that U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn‘s opponent in 2008, Nancy Harrelson, is being pushed into the SC-06 race by people who only want to gin up Democratic turnout in the district.
While we consider the Earl to be a pretty intelligent guy, we have to call shenanigans on this one. As regular residents of the Sixth District, we’d have to say that no Democrat gives a good goddamn about Clyburn’s reelection prospects. It’s a sure thing, like a Republican running in the Fourth District. Jesus Christ could run, Himself, as a Republican in the Sixth and not get within five points.
That would mean that whatever might be going down with Harrelson is totally a GOP thing. And if Democrats are really screwing around with the Republican field, they deserve to get a quick ticket to back in front of the television.
The wonks at the Cook Political Report have gone to town with a new base polling system, the “partisan voting index.” It takes into account the last five presidential election cycles.
One is that Republicans have absolutely sucked — or shat the bed, or bollixed up the works, whatever your expression — in winning favorable districts. Democrats tend to be crowded together, in that the bluest districts are very blue, while Republicans are spread out. But, there are way more GOP-leaning districts. The disparity between the party in Congress and the district tendency is staggering.
U.S. House, by members
Democrat: 257
Republican: 178
U.S. House, by VPI
Democrat: 191
Republican: 234
Even: 9
That means a lot of Democrats are winning conservative districts. If the GOP wants to take back the House any time soon, it’s going to have to do something about that. It already lost one of the most reliable districts in the country in NY-23, and will almost certainly lose U.S. Rep. Joeseph Cao‘s LA-2, which has a +25 Democratic VPI and went for President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. John Kerry by massive margins.
In South Carolina, the situation is only slightly different.
House districts, by GOP VPI
SC-03: Gresham Barrett (R), R+17
2004: Bush +32, 2008: McCain +29
SC-04: Bob Inglis (R), R+15
2004: Bush +31, 2008: McCain +23
SC-01: Henry Brown (R), R+10
2004: Bush +22, 2008: McCain +14
SC-02: Joe Wilson (R), R+9
2004: Bush +21, 2008: McCain +9
SC-05: John Spratt (D), R+7
2004: Bush +15, 2008: McCain +7
SC-06: Jim Clyburn (D), D+12
2004: Kerry +22, 2008: Obama +29
Some Democrats, like Spratt or U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas (R+20), are so entrenched that it would take the stars aligning for a Republican win. But, having such a large advantage in VPI but at a significant low in actual representation seems to show that the people behind the wheel haven’t been performing at a winning level in elephant land.
